Welcome to my sixth annual MLS season preview. Its amazing how the league has grown and changed over the years, and this season could be the best yet for MLS.
For those not familiar with my season previews, I take a look at the major comings and goings with each MLS team, where they finished last season, and where I see them finishing this season. As you may know if you follow MLS, it may be the most difficult league in the world to predict. In just one season a club can go from worst to first, or first to worst. Mid season transfer can shake up the standings, and the World Cup this season adds another dimension to the predicting, but I will give you the most reasoned preview of which I am capable, and I hope you enjoy it.
Chicago Fire... 2013 Finish: 6th in the Eastern Conference. Predicted 2014 finish: 6th in the Eastern Conference.
IN: D/M: Lovel Palmer, D: Jhon Kennedy Hurtado, D: Patrick Ianni, M: Benji Joya, D: Greg Cochrane, M: Matt Watson
OUT: M: Arvelo Rios, M: Joel Lindpere, F: Maicon Santos, D: Wells Thompson, D: Jalil Anibaba, D: Austin Berry, F: Frederico Puppo, M: Yazid Atouba
New manager Frank Yallop has already made some interesting changes in his short time with Chicago, making the team more solid defensively, but the story of Chicago's 2013 season was the out of his skin form of forward Mike Magee. When predicting a finish for 2014, I took into account the fact that Chicago should be more solid defensively, allowing fewer goals, but also acknowledging that the chances of Magee having a career year yet again are up in the air. If Magee finds his scoring boots again this season, expect Chicago to be fighting for playoff positioning, reaching as high as third in the East, but should the team fail to gel under Yallop in his first season controlling not only the first team but player personnel decisions, or Magee returning to the form of his first few MLS seasons, Chicago could fall as low as 7th or 8th in the conference.
Chivas USA... 2013 Finish: 9th in the Western Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 8th in the Western Conference.
IN: M: Mauro Rosales, D: Andrew Jean-Baptiste, F: Adolfo Bautista, F: Eric Zavaleta (loan from Seattle), M: Agustin Pelletieri
OUT: F: Tristan Bowen, D: Jorge Villafana, M: Gabriel Farfan, F: Bryan De La Fuente, D: Steve Purdy
The story of Chivas' 2013 campaign was one of a poor team, racism, and abysmal attendance. The story of 2014 looks to be much brighter, if not just as muddled. MLS itself stepped in to purchase Chivas USA last month, keeping the name, manager, and stadium, with an eye to securing a new LA based ownership group which will provide a rebranding, as well as a new stadium in LA itself, preferably at some point this season.
Wilmer Cabrera has been brought in as manager, as well as an aging Rosales and Bautista. While Chivas should still struggle this season to get results, they should be one of the more interesting teams in MLS, and slightly improved. Few doubt that Cabrera has what it takes to manage in MLS, and the new ownership saga seems to be ripe for exploration as the season progresses.
Colorado Rapids... 2013 Finish: 5th in the Western Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 9th in the Western Conference.
IN: D/M: Marc Burch, M: Marvin Chavez, M: Marlon Hairston
OUT: F: Atiba Harris, M: Tony Cascio (loan to Houston), M: Hendry Thomas, D: Kory Kindle (retired after one season)
After a somewhat surprising finish with a young core in 2013, Colorado look to push on in 2014. The major issues seem to be, can the youth continue to mature, and will they find a manager? In a very short span of time this off season Colorado lost an assistant coach and then their up and coming manager, leaving them in limbo as the season begins.
With so much disarray, I have to predict a poor finish for the Rapids. Add to the mix an owner more concerned with his NFL and EPL teams, and the uncertain continued growth of the Dillons, Serna and Powers, the entire bottom half of the West seems plausible for the Rapids, but my gut says they could see themselves fall behind even lowly Chivas USA.
Columbus Crew... 2013 Finish: 8th in the Eastern Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 9th in the Eastern Conference.
IN: GK: Brad Stuver, M: Hector Jimenez, D: Michael Parkhurst, M: Daniel Paladini
OUT: M: Eddie Gavin, D: Drew Beckie, D: Chad Marshall, GK: Andy Gruenbaum, M: Konrad Warzycha
With a new ownership group in place for its first full season (replacing the Hunt family), and a club badge rebranding in the future, it would be easy to see things looking up for the Crew. Throw in former MLS player Gregg Burhalter as manager, sort of a disciple from the Bruce Arena coaching tree, and savvy additions, and a case could be made for Columbus finishing as high as 5th, but the questions are large enough for me to predict them sitting near the bottom of the conference.
One interesting thing to look for throughout the season will be Berhalter's tactical decisions. MLS, mainly known as a 4-4-2 league over the years, seems to be making a switch to 4-3-3. Berhalter, not to be out tweaked, has dabbled using 3 men at the back this preseason. Parkhurst is the perfect MLS player for a 3 back system, but in many games the formation could easily lead to Columbus getting over run with the wrong players to not only partner Parkhurst, but to big lung it up and down the wings all match long. When and where Berhalter tries this wrinkle will tell us a lot about Berhalter as a manager, and the changes they may need to make in the summer transfer window.
DC United... 2013 Finish: 10th in the Eastern Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 8th in the Eastern Conference.
IN: M: Davy Arnaud, D: Sean Franklin, D: Bobby Boswell, F: Conor Doyle, F: Eddie Johnson, F: Fabian Espindola, D: Jeff Parke, M: Alex Caskey
OUT: F: Carlos Ruiz, F: Lionard Pajoy, M: Dwayne De Rosario, D: James Riley, M: John Thorrington, D: Dejan Jakovic, F: Casey Townsend, M: Collin Martin
The argument could be made that no one had a better offseason than DC. Adding a USMNT forward as a designated player in Eddie Johnson, an aging but dangerous proven scorer in Espindola, a solid vet in Arnaud, as well as 3 veteran rocks in defense with Franklin, Boswell, and Parke, I was almost tempted to believe that last seasons rock bottom finish and season of abject misery was a blip, and the playoff team of 2012 is the norm under manager Ben Olsen. While I believe they will be greatly improved, I'm not sold on the team being solidified in time to get the early results they will need to put things in motion for a playoff run. Johnson, even if he wants to show Seattle what they are missing just because of money, he will be away this summer because of the World Cup, which could cause the team to falter should the US be away for longer than just the group stage.
FC Dallas... 2013 Finish: 8th in the Western Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 5th in the Western Conference.
IN: M: Adam Moffat, M: Hendry Thomas, F: Andres Escobar, F: David Texeira
OUT: M: David Ferreira, M: Jackson, F: Kenny Cooper, M: Bobby Warshaw, F: Eric Hassli
Oscar Pareja left Colorado this winter to go back "home", and this could be the start of something special in Dallas. The additions of Moffat and Thomas in the midfield could be exactly what Dallas needed to take an underperforming side last season and really put it all together. Thomas in particular could be one of the moves of the offseason, protecting the defense and distributing through the middle, making it all work in ways it hasn't since Daniel Hernandez was shown the door. Look for Dallas to get off to a hot start, and the teams pace to wear the opposition out during the long hot summer. You'll enjoy watching FC Dallas.
Houston Dynamo... 2013 Finish: 4th in the Eastern Conference. 2014 Predicted Finish: 4th in the Eastern Conference.
IN: D: A.J. Cochran, D: David Horst, M: Tony Cascio
OUT: F: Brian Ching, D: Bobby Boswell, F: Callen Carr
Other than the loss of solid veteran Bobby Boswell, it was a quite offseason in Houston. While I could make a case for Houston falling to 7th or 8th in the league, the Dominic Kinnear factor as well as Houston's legacy as a team that grinds it out all season long has me keeping them in the playoffs this season. Typical boring Houston.
LA Galaxy... 2013 Finish: 3rd in the Western Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 2nd in the Western Conference.
IN: M: Baggio Husidic, F: Samuel, F: Rob Friend, D: James Riley
OUT: M: Colin Clark, D: Sean Franklin, M: Michael Stephens, GK: Carlo Cudicini, M: Pablo Mastroeni, F: Jose Villarreal, D: Bryan Gaul, D: Greg Cochrane
Bruce Arena is the king of the tweak, making minor changes year after year while keeping his team among the best in the league. This seasons tweak, adding a large target man (2 actually) for Robbie Keane to play off of, while sliding Landon Donovan back into the midfield. The main loss, Sean Franklin, was replaced by James Riley, making it a wash.
The question will be how LA handles the World Cup with Landon Donovan and Omar Gonzalez being gone, and only that keeps me from placing them as Western Conference winners. If either Samuel or Friend hits the ground running, LA could be in for a dominating season, and Robbie Keane could be headed toward an MVP season.
Montreal Impact... 2013 Finish: 5th in the Eastern Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 10th in the Eastern Conference.
IN: D/M: Eric Miller, D: Heath Pearce
OUT: D: Allesandro Nesta, M: Paolo DelPiccolo, M: Maximilliano Rodriguez, M: Davy Arnaud, D: Zack Valentin
Frank Kloppas has joined Montreal this season as manager, after a mediocre spell in charge of the Chicago Fire. With no major additions to coincide with veteran departures of a mixed nature, nothing about Montreal has me excited for the upcoming season. I don't know who they are, nor do I trust Kloppas to do anything with them. Though they finished just in the playoff race last season, in a wide open battle from 3rd to 10th in the East, my gut says Montreal sink to the bottom.
New England Revolution... 2013 Finish: 3rd in the Eastern Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 5th in the Eastern Conference.
IN: M: Paolo DelPiccolo, M/F: Steve Neumann, F: Patrick Mullins, F: Teal Bunbury, M: Diego Kobayashi
OUT: F: Chad Barrett, D: Tyler Polak, GK: Matt Reis, F: Juan Agudelo, M: Juan Toja
Last season New England took a young squad with a young manager, had fun playing, and took it all the way to the 3rd seed in the East. This season I expect much of the same. A major loss will be Juan Agudelo heading to Europe, but the addition of Teal Bunbury could be just what the doctor, or in this case Jay Heaps, ordered. Bunbury has yet to prove himself, but will finally be given the chance to be the main man for a club, and the positive atmosphere could be just the thing he needs. Throw in 2 of the top 10 players in this years draft and New England is looking good.
The worry of course is a second season syndrome setting in with Heaps and the youngsters of the Revolution. Have other clubs figured them out? To me, the deciding factor in New England making the playoffs could be that they wont be losing anyone to the World Cup.
New York Red Bulls... 2013 Finish: 1st in the Eastern Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 2nd in the Eastern Conference.
IN: M: Bobby Convey, D: Richard Eckersley
OUT: GK: Kevin Hartman, D: Brandon Barklage, D: Heath Pearce, F: Fabian Espindola, D: Markus Holgersson
New York had a relatively quite offseason with no real major losses and no major additions. Eckersley could prove that he is better than a few seasons in the hell that was TFC have shown, and Convey is always serviceable. For the first time since Bob Bradley's Metro Star days, New York decided team chemistry is more important than adding a "name".
Tim Cahill will miss time for the World Cup, and Theirry Henry, in his final contracted season with the club, isn't getting any younger. Already Henry is being pulled from New York's opening match due to the issue of a turf field, which Henry refuses to play on unless it is Portland. While I believe the Red bulls will be in the Supporters Shield race until the season ends, these issues will see them finishing 2nd to me. Then again, who knows what name could enter the fray post World Cup.
Philadelphia Union... 2013 Finish: 7th in the Eastern Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 3rd in the Eastern Conference.
IN: GK: Andre Blake, M: Maurice Edu, D: Austin Berry, M: Vincent Nogueira
OUT: M/F: Kleberson, D: Chris Albright, M: Michael Farfan, D: Jeff Parke
Philly made two superb acquisitions in Edu and Berry, with Blake, the best keeper in the MLS Super Draft, still needing MLS seasoning before stepping in to take McMath's spot as Philly's #1. Farfan and Parke will be losses, but as the team matures one more season together, Philly looks destined to put it all together and make a run. Every year I pick a team to surprise everyone with their strong finishing position, and this year I feel it is the Union. Look for Philadelphia to be more defensively sound this season, and Jack McInerney to have a season similar to his start of last year. Watch the flanks for Philly this season.
Portland Timbers... 2013 Finish: 1st in the Western Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 1st in the Western Conference.
IN: D: Jorge Villafana, M: Steve Zakuani, F: Gaston Fernandez, D: Norberto Paparatto
OUT: D: David Horst, D: Dylan Tucker-Gagnes, F: Ryan Johnson, D: Andrew Jean-Baptiste, M: Sal Zizzo, F: Sebastian Rincon, F: Jose Valencia, D: Mikael Silvestre
This could be the year of Darlington Nagbe. If Steve Zakuani gets fit and back in form, Portland becomes even faster and more dangerous. Should Fernandez hit the ground running with the help of hi countryman Diego Valeri, they may be unstoppable. As long as Will Johnson stays fit, Portland has the inside track to the Supporters Shield. The most fun team to watch as well as the hipster choice thanks to Caleb Porter and the Timbers Army, Porterball 2.0 could be even better than version 1.
Real Salt Lake... 2013 Finish: 2nd in the Western Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 3rd in the Western Conference.
IN:
OUT: GK: Josh Saunders, D/M: Lovel Palmer
RSL has been one of the most consistent teams the past several years, and the fact that they made no major changes should see that trend continue. The one major worry is that they are now under a new manager in Jeff Cassar. Much of the credit RSL has received in recent years has been laid at the feet of Jason Kreis. If RSL should falter this season, the legend of Kreis will only grow prior to his debut with NYCFC in 2015.
San Jose Earthquakes... 2013 Finish: 6th in the Western Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 7th in the Western Conference.
IN: F: Atiba Harris, F: Billy Schuler, D: Brandon Barklage
OUT: M: Ramiro Corrales, M: Mehdi Ballouchy, D: Justin Morrow, M: Marvin Chavez, D: Steven Beitashour
On paper, the Quakes have a team more than good enough to reach the playoffs in 2014. But games are not played on paper. The Quakes lost most of their depth this offseason, meaning any extended injury or rash of injuries/suspensions could lead to a tumble down the table. I feel this season San Jose will once again fall just short of making the playoffs.
Seattle Sounders FC... 2013 Finish: 4th in the Western Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 4th in the Western Conference.
IN: GK: Stefan Frei, F: Tristan Bowen, D: Chad Marshall, F: Kenny Cooper, F: Corey Hertzog, F: Chad Barrett, D: Jalil Anibaba, M: Marco Pappa
OUT: GK: Michael Gspurning, D: Marc Burch, M: Blair Gavin, F: Steve Zakuani, M: Mauro Rosales, M: Adam moffat, F: Eddie Johnson, D: Jhon Kennedy Hurtado, D: Patrick Ianni, F: Eric Zaveleta, M: Alex Caskey
Sigi Schmidt is in the final season of his contract with the Sounders. Eddie Johnson as well as a host of veteran players were shown the door. In return they gained a quality defender in Marshall, a mid who completely lost form during a year away from MLS in Pappa, and a handful of forwards who are either past prime or haven't gotten there yet, and maybe never will.
It would be easy to call Seattle the losers of the MLS offseason, because no one seems to be able to tell me what is going on in Seattle, what the plan is if it does exist. But with Cooper said to be looking better than he has since his brief Red Bulls spell, Marshall ready to marshall the back line, and Pappa being a possible key cog in the mid, should everything go exactly right for Seattle, they will be figting for the top of the West. And yet, should Clint Dempsey fail to reach form, or Obafemi Martins fail to ever achieve any, it is also plausible that by the time the World Cup arrives, Sigi could be unemployed.
Sporting Kansas City... 2013 Finish: 2nd in the Eastern Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 1st in the Eastern Conference.
IN: M: Sal Zizzo, GK: Andy Gruenbaum
OUT: GK: Jimmy Nielsen, F: Teal Bunbury
When you walk away from the 2013 season as MLS Cup champions, you don't need to make many changes to your team, and KC didn't. Can they survive with a new keeper in front of the leagues most consistent defense? Can they repeat as champions? Will CONCACAF Champions League slow them down? Will the hunt for an MLS Cup/US Open Cup double be too much for a team that will be worn thin should the US make it past the group stage at the World Cup?
The questions in regards to KC are many, but as their positioning last year and eventual Cup win tell us, the questions could very well come with positive answers. Like with most teams, as long as the key players stay fit, KC could be fighting on all fronts, sticking in the Supporters Shield race until the bitter end.
Toronto FC... 2013 Finish: 9th in the Eastern Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 7th in the Eastern Conference.
IN: M: Jackson, F: Gilberto, D: Justin Morrow, M: Dwayne De Rosario, F: Jermain Defoe, M: Michael Bradley, D: Bradley Orr, GK: Julio Cesar
OUT: F: Robert Earnshaw, F: Justin Braun, F: Danny Koevermans, GK: Stefan Frei, M: Bobby Convey, D: Richard Eckersley, M: Mattias Laba, M: Reggie Lambe
Where to begin with Toronto FC and the overhaul that has begun? Their best player last season, Mattias Laba, is now gone, but Michael Bradley now anchors the midfield. They added proven EPL goal scorer Defoe to the front line, as well as Gilberto, who came into training camp over weight and out of shape. Elder statesman De Rosario came back to Toronto against all odds, with Brasilian #1 Julio Cesar joining from the English Championship.
All signs would point to Toronto FC climbing the table, solidifying a playoff spot, and even challenging for the Supporters Shield. And yet the game doesn't always work that way. There are still many holes in the Toronto squad to be filled in during the coming seasons, and in its current state, the team seem to be very reliant on Michael Bradley. It would be easy to say as Bradley goes, so goes TFC, but realistically even a brilliant season from Bradley and the TFC new boys should see them fall a few points short of the playoff places in a heavily muddled Eastern Conference.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC... 2013 Finish: 7th in the Western Conference. Predicted 2014 Finish: 6th in the Western Conference.
IN: D: Christian Dean, M: Mehdi Ballouchy, D: Steven Beitashour, M: Matias Laba, M/F: Sebastian Fernandez, M/F: Nicolas Mezquida
OUT: D: Lee Young-Pyo, GK: Joe Cannon, M: Daigo Kobayashi, F: Corey Hertzog
Welshman Carl Robinson takes over Vancouver as they continue to take steps forward. The addition of the fantastic Laba should help secure the back while also helping Vancouver gain and keep possession. Ballouchy and Beitashour should also help in that regard. I expect the Whitecaps to be marginally improved and in position most of the season in a dog fight for the final playoff places. Much will ride on Robinson's vision and tactical decision making.
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As with every season, the summer transfer window can shake things up in positive and negative ways for every team, so while some of my predictions will make me seem a visionary, others will make me seem rather thick. Who knows, maybe both are true? I will close with a few other predictions for the upcoming season...
Supporters Shield Winner: Sporting Kansas City
Potential League MVP: Robbie Keane (LA Galaxy), Will Johnson (Portland Timbers), Tim Cahill (NY Red Bulls)
Player To Watch: Matias Laba (Vancouver), Michael Bradley (Toronto), Darlington Nagbe (Portland), Hendry Thomas (Dallas), Eddie Johnson (DC)
Rookie Of The Year: Difficult choice this season as so few rookies look likely to get steady starting minutes.
Well, that was it, season preview #6. I hope you learned something, were aggravated by something, or inspired to watch a club you hadn't really paid attention to before, or watch an old face in a new place.
Until next time, remember, MLS Matters.
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