At this years MLS All-Star game in Kansas City, MLS commissioner Don Garber completely overshadowed the festivities during his annual half time interview with ESPN. With ESPN analyst "Soccer Jesus" Alexi Lalas lying in wait to spring questions on Garber over the recent HBO expose on the Chivas USA situation, Garber trumped all of that with an announcement that caught everyone by surprise. In their effort to become a "top league" by the year 2020, MLS will be expanding to 24 clubs.
The 20th MLS club, New York City FC, hasn't hired a player, a coach, found a site to play games at, or found a place to build their own stadium yet, but already Garber was looking to the future.
There was a time not that long ago where MLS was forced to contract. Having learned many lessons from the NASL experiment, MLS was prudent and frugal in their business approach, and yet the league could not support itself. The only thing that kept the league alive was the willingness of a few owners, in particular the Hunt family and AEG to own all of the clubs themselves, eating financial loss after financial loss. Having been at the helm of a failed sports league, (NFL Europe) Don Garber knew the league was in dire straits.
In a matter of a few years, under the stewardship of Garber and the support of Phil Anschutz of AEG, the league not only began to expand again, they found a path forward. Stable ownership groups willing to take losses, stable stadiums, preferably soccer specific, and the "Beckham Experiment". In a short amount of time clubs like Toronto, Seattle, Vancouver, Portland, and Montreal joined the league, creating a Pacific Northwest rivalry, as well as a Canadian one, while also pulling from the built in fan base of teams that pre-dated MLS. In many ways the new approach while seeming prudent, also had a slight smell of the old NASL to it.
While for most clubs there are plenty of butts in seats, an ever growing number it seems (MLS is one of the best attended leagues in the world) but the television numbers have remained rather stagnant. MLS is a growing niche market, but a niche none the less. While the owners have become younger and more ambitious, and more willing to part with their cash, eventually the league needs higher viewership numbers to create bigger television deals. (A deal the size of the minuscule by American standards NHL deal would see MLS teams compete budget wise with Mexican teams and beyond.) One way to do that is create bigger exposure in the southern market, or so ESPN has told MLS. In the meantime, the best way to create an influx of cash is through ever increasing expansion fees.
Over the next 7 years we can expect 4 more (5 including NYCFC) clubs to join the league. We already know that the league and ESPN want a renewed presence in the southern market. With David Beckham having a sweetheart deal in what is likely to be a Miami franchise, that leaves just 3 places open for the bidding.
While I am no fan of MLS in Miami, a horrible sports town, it seems to be happening, especially if the rumors are true that Posh and Becks are in the market for the Versace mansion in Miami. As I stated previously, not only does MLS need a solid southern presence, they also need rivalries. With Miami entering the league the nearest rivals would seem to be Washington DC. This makes me believe the second of four will be Orlando City. The team has a committed ownership group with big dreams (Kaka), a stadium plan finally on its way to approval, and a small loyal fan base which surely would grow given a step up to the big leagues. While the stadium deal still has a 30-40 million dollar hole in it, all signs point to a double Florida entrance back into MLS. And now we have 2 places remaining to reach 24.
At this point MLS is allowed to be very picky. While Don Garber never said that MLS could not expand beyond 24 clubs, he has put a limit on the openings in the future, raising the price for entrance into the league. Wealthy young ambitious owners, soccer specific stadiums, and ready made fan bases are not too much to ask. A high eight or even a nine figure franchise fee for the final clubs to join the league of 24 is not out of the question. The question becomes, where will the final two clubs be placed. Below is a quick overview of the early contenders...
ATLANTA: Pro: Southern market. The Atlanta Silverbacks are a known commodity in the soccer community. Con: Atlanta is a horrible sports town, unless that sport is American football, in particular college football, as is the case with most of the south. They also most likely would overlook the Silverbacks, and be reliant upon another NFL owner using their already built stadium and organization, not exactly the dream choice MLS should be chasing.
DETROIT: Pro: A small fan movement has begun. Con: Seemingly always bankrupt, not known as the greatest of sports towns, let alone as a soccer town.
MINNEAPOLIS: Pro: Good size market which has shown a passion for soccer in the past. Con: Again they would most likely be reliant upon an NFL owner with an already built dome stadium, not the direction MLS should be heading on their way to be a "top league".
OKLAHOMA CITY: Pro: Southern market with built in Texas rivalries. Con: No potential ownership group has been formed. The desire of the city or a fan base is not known.
OTTAWA: Pro: It would bring the Canadian presence to 4 clubs. Con: Banal Canadian city. Another northern team would make an eventual calendar change difficult.
SACRAMENTO: Pro: An ownership group has formed and is attempting to garner more investors. Built in rival for San Jose. Could be a 4th Californian club. Con: Not known as the best sports town. A rather unknown potential fan base, despite 14,000 showing up for a double header exhibition recently.
ST. LOUIS: Pro: Hot bed of soccer? Built in rival for Kansas City and Chicago. Con: No ownership group.
SAN ANTONIO: Pro: A good size market. Could make it a 3-way Texas derby. Con: No potential ownership group. The football south.
Honorable mention: Austin (Aztec presence in a Portland of the south), Charlotte (southern market), Indianapolis (midwestern rivalries), Milwaukee (midwestern rivalries), New York Cosmos (name value), Phoenix (good size media market).
It is always possible that an ownership group will appear out of nowhere. It is possible that the new Columbus Crew owner will fall back on his promise of keeping the team in the city, moving it to one of the above mentioned destinations. It is possible that Chivas USA could come into play, not just as a rebrand but a potential relocation target. It is possible the Becks in Miami rumors are just that, and Orlando City can fail to fill the gap in stadium financing.
With money coming into the league, expansion fees looking to climb, the collective bargaining agreement set to be renewed, television deals set to be renewed, and an ever expanding number of designated players, not just for the clubs in LA or NY, these are interesting times for the MLS. Will the league reach the goals Garber has set for it, having met the goals he set in the past, or are we on the road to NASL part two, another failed league expanding too far too fast spending too much money? Only time will tell.
(If you have any comments or suggestions of your own, feel free to leave a comment either here or for me on facebook. I'm sure some of you have some very interesting and passionate views.)
Until next time, remember, MLS Matters.
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