Thursday, May 7, 2015

THE 7 YEAR PLAN: THE PATH TO BECOMING A "TOP" LEAGUE

Last week I was asked a simple question, "What will it take for MLS clubs to regularly win CONCACAF Champions League?". My instantaneous response was "Money, depth". I stand by this statement, but upon reflection, I pondered the road to Don Garber's "top league" prediction, and how becoming the dominant league in North America went hand in hand with most MLS fans CCL dreams.

I asked myself a few questions:
1) How do we get technically gifted serviceable pros to choose MLS or Liga MX?
2) If the money is equal, would players rather live in the US, Mexico, Belgium, etc?
3) Can a league become a "top" league in North America and the World while having a salary cap?
4) Does the current MLS DP structure help or harm the growth of MLS?
5) How much money would legitimately need to be spent to reach the goals of MLS and its fans?
6) Can a league become a "top" league in North America and the World when based on parity?
7) What would an increased salary cap mean for American players?


Earlier this week ESPN commentator and pundit Taylor "Big Head" Twellman posted the team salary breakdown of two Liga MX and two MLS clubs. One comparison was on the low end of spending, $6,500,000. The MLS side spent $3,000,000 of their budget on one player, with the next highest earner making $450,000. There was a precipitous drop as you then went down through the squad. The Liga MX side had three earners tied for their top spot, making $515,000, with a slow drop down through the entire squad.

The second example was of higher spending sides. The Liga MX side had a salary budget of $13,000,000. One player earned over 2 million, and only 4 players earned over a million, with a slow and steady drop down through the squad. The MLS side had a budget of $12,500,000. The top three highest paid players made nearly 10 million, leaving the rest of the squad to split 2.5 million.

Twellman's point, was that looking at the pay of the squads, without seeing a single player's name or position, you know which squad more often than not would beat the other. One side relied on a few quality players (he made no comments about being overpaid) and nearly a complete squad of lower talents, while the other had a balanced squad of decent quality.

Before I address the questions I asked myself earlier in the article, I will show you the end point, what I came up with, and then back track to the answers I came up with. While no plan is perfect, and mine may contain some flaws, I feel it would be a great step for MLS to find themselves as not only the best league in North America by 2022, but also one of the best in the world.


YEAR ONE: $6,000,000 salary cap, 3 designated player spots available. (Using current DP salary cap rules and a hard salary cap.)

YEAR TWO: $7,000,000 salary cap, 3 designated player spots available.

YEAR THREE: $8,000,000 salary cap, 2 designated player spots available.

YEAR FOUR: $9,000,000 salary cap, 2 designated player spots available.

YEAR FIVE: $10,000,000 salary cap, 1 designated player spot available.

YEAR SIX: $11,000,000 salary cap, 1 designated player spot available.

YEAR SEVEN: $12,000,000 salary cap, 0 designated player spots available.

Despite the "hard" salary cap, for those who wish to spend more, there will be a luxury tax, which will then get split evenly between the non-cap offenders. Offending teams will pay a fixed percentage based on the amount of which they over spend.

YEAR 1 and 2: 10% of over salary cap expenditure.

YEAR 3 and 4: 15% of over salary cap expenditure.

YEAR 5 and 6: 20% of over salary cap expenditure.

YEAR 7 and Beyond: 25% of over salary cap expenditure.

While the league will have a salary maximum, it will also have a salary minimum spend, which will include the MLS player salaries, as well as academy and/or USL salary expenditures, with USL salary expenditures currently hovering around $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 for most MLS sides with a USL club. A minimum spend seems necessary if the league would like to remain competitive and offer parity.

YEAR 1: $4,000,000 minimum

YEAR 2: $4,500,000 minimum

YEAR 3: $5,000,000 minimum

YEAR 4: $5,500,000 minimum

YEAR 5: $6,000,000 minimum

YEAR 6: $6,500,000 minimum

YEAR 7 and Beyond: $7,000,000 minimum

A feature of my plan which has been discussed by fans for many years, is performance bonuses.

SUPPORTERS SHIELD WINNER: An extra $500,000 of salary cap space for the season following a Supporters Shield victory.

CONCACAF CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WINNER: An extra $500,000 of salary cap space for the next two seasons following a CCL victory.


While not perfect, I believe this basic outline would be the best starting point MLS has ever had when it comes to achieving their goals. Revenue would increase through the gates, and television ratings and money would follow. Even a slightly higher standard is what many soccer fans, who are not MLS fans, are dying for in the US.

Earlier I asked myself some questions, and I would now like to do my best to convey to you what I truly believe are the answers, and how my salary structure plan would affect such answers.

1)HOW DO WE GET TECHNICALLY GIFTED SERVICEABLE PROS TO CHOOSE MLS OVER LIGA MX?

Money. Plain and simple. A member of the starting eleven, substitutes bench, or just added squad depth, your salary could be double or more in Mexico what it would be in MLS, based in large part to the current salary cap structure.

2) IF THE MONEY WAS EQUAL, WOULD PLAYERS RATHER LIVE IN THE US, MEXICO, BELGIUM, ETC?

While some player would surely have an affinity for one country over another, based on place of birth, language spoken, or any other number of factors, I firmly believe that all things being equal, the lifestyle of the US would be preferred by the majority of players.

3) CAN A LEAGUE BECOME A "TOP" LEAGUE IN NORTH AMERICA OR THE WORLD WHILE HAVING A SALARY CAP?

Yes. While fans crave success for their clubs, they also crave financial stability. Knowing your team will be around for years to come without financial concerns is of the utmost importance. Also, the salary cap I proposed allows for MLS clubs to compete on equal or superior standing to most Liga MX clubs. A healthy cap does not have to mean poor quality or low expenditures.

4) DOES THE CURRENT MLS DP STRUCTURE HELP OR HARM THE GROWTH OF MLS?

Both. While David Beckham, Robbie Keane, Clint Dempsey, Ricardo Kaka, or Frank Lampard help expose the league to a wider audience, while also bringing in outside interest and allegiances, even if only briefly, top heavy squads where one player sitting in a dressing room is making several million a year, while the person next to him is making $60,000 is not the best scenario for team chemistry or success. The top heavy structure created by current DP rules in the end is doing more harm than good when it comes to broader success on a continental level.

5) HOW MUCH MONEY WOULD LEGITIMATELY NEED TO BE SPENT TO REACH THE GOALS OF MLS AND ITS FANS?

With a current cap hovering around $3,500,000 and most MLS clubs spending on DP's doubling that amount, I believe doubling current spending will more than do the trick. MLS, despite its critics is a decent standard and has much more entertainment and quality than many would give it credit for. Allowing salary space to improve depth and starting eleven quality, would surely take MLS from a point of struggling to achieve its goals, to achieving them with hard work, but more ease.

6) CAN A LEAGUE BECOME A "TOP" LEAGUE IN NORTH AMERICAN AND THE WORLD WHEN BASED ON PARITY?

Possibly, but most likely, no. Soccer, like everything, needs heroes and villains. It needs the have and have-nots. It needs teams pushing the boundaries and setting the standard. It needs teams whose answer for success is spending money, while others build through youth and system to achieve its goals. While MLS can have a salary cap and parity, it has always had spenders and non-spenders. Adding a cap that is open but includes a luxury tax allows for clubs to spend anything they desire, while helping those who do not have the money to spend. It is conceivable that by 2022, a team like Columbus could have 1/7 of its minimum spend paid for by their share of the luxury tax. Its not hard to imagine six teams spending twenty million on salary, paying a $2,000,000 penalty apiece.


7) WHAT WOULD AN INCREASED SALARY CAP MEAN FOR AMERICAN PLAYERS?

I believe it would help and harm Americans attempting to ply their trade in their home league. On the positive side, stiffer competition would lead to more American players being forced to raise their game and compete for a position in the starting eleven or squad. Those who make it would be of a higher calibre than those who could make a squad today. The harm would come in fewer Americans playing their trade in MLS, a league which is already half foreign. Part of any new collective bargaining agreement and fresh salary cap structure could include home grown player minimums in an attempt to make academy and USL expenditures worthwhile.




Overall, I believe its time MLS stepped up its game and stopped hiding behind manufactured losses while hiding profits in a group account which doesn't show up on their books when it comes to the bottom line. The time to make the move and show its here to stay is now.

The plan however is not complete, nor is it flawless. If you have any comments, suggestions, or a plan of your own, please let me know.

Thank you for taking the time to read my piece, and as always, remember, MLS Matters.


If you would like to reach into the archives and see what I was saying about league parity two years ago, feel free to check out my piece "Parity or Parody" here... mlsmatters.blogspot.com/2013/09/parity-or-parody.html

Friday, May 1, 2015

WEEK 9

Welcome back to MLS Matters. It was another great week of MLS action in week 8, and week 9 has some fantastic match-ups on tap. Without any further ado, lets get stuck in...


WEEK 8 RESULTS:

CHICAGO FIRE 1-0 NEW YORK CITY FC
COLORADO RAPIDS 1-1 FC DALLAS
COLUMBUS CREW SC 4-1 PHILADELPHIA UNION
NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION 4-0 REAL SALT LAKE
HOUSTON DYNAMO 4-4 SPORTINBG KANSAS CITY
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS FC 1-2 DC UNITED
NEW YORK RED BULLS 1-1 LA GALAXY
ORLANDO CITY SC 0-2 TORONTO FC
SEATTLE SOUNDERS FC 1-0 PORTLAND TIMBERS FC



TALKING POINT: Goals, Goals, Goals

Last Saturday was goal night in MLS. First, Columbus put four past the Union, conceding one themselves. Then, the Revs embarrassed RSL with a 4-0 thumping. Then, Houston and KC topped it off with a 4-4 thriller.

Columbus has a quality side, and they showed it against a weak Union side. Its hard to imagine a better front four in MLS than Kamara, Higuain, Finley, and Meram. Put it together with a solid mid of Tchani/Trapp/Saed and your front men are free to express themselves. Combine that with a solid defense that contains one of the most exciting fullbacks in the league in Waylon Francis, and Columbus is built to excite. This won't be the last time they score four this season.

The Revs are finally clicking as Jones returns from his injury break, and the pace of Agudelo out wide and his combining with Davies and Rowe makes for an exciting and effective front triumvirate. Even at home, putting four past RSL is an accomplishment. New England are built for the long haul and Supporters Shield contention.

Houston and KC may not have been a defensive master class, but it surely was entertaining. A match that had a little bit of everything, from late goals to red cards, this match was the perfect capper to a three match swing that saw seventeen goals.


BEST PERSON/PEOPLE OF THE WEEK: COLUMBUS CREW MEDICAL AND COACHING STAFF

Last week I had a worst person of the week, but decided this week to give some props to the good guys. After having a calf injury that kept him out of action, Crew mid Will Trapp complained of concussion like symptoms. After taking more time off, he played in a tough battle against Vancouver after being cleared to play again, but came off at the half after complaining of dizziness and fatigue, missing the past several weeks. Having been cleared medically again to play, Trapp and the medical and coaching staff have decided to take it slow, not willing to rush his return.

In this day and age, where concussions are still taken lightly despite increased scrutiny, its great to see a club take the cautious route. Bravo.


WEEK 9 POWER RANKINGS:

1) NEW YORK RED BULLS 13 POINTS ON 7 PLAYED (UP 1)
2) VANCOUVER WHITECAPS FC 16 POINTS ON 9 PLAYED (DOWN 1)
3) DC UNITED 14 POINTS ON 7 PLAYED (UP 1)
4) FC DALLAS 14 POINTS ON 8 PLAYED (DOWN 1)
5) NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION 14 POINTS ON 8 PLAYED (UP 1)
6) SEATTLE SOUNDERS FC 13 POINTS ON 7 PLAYED (UP 1)
7) LA GALAXY 12 POINTS ON 8 PLAYES (DOWN 1)
7) COLUMBUS CREW SC 11 POINTS ON 7 PLAYED (NEW)



WEEK 9 PREDICTIONS:

NEW YORK RED BULLS 1-1 COLORADO RAPIDS: Mid-week clash, NY needed a late penalty to nick the draw against a game Colorado side.

HOUSTON DYNAMO 1-1 FC DALLAS: The return of the Texas derby to the Western Conference, Dallas has come out on top in the last two high scoring affairs, while the previous two lower scoring affairs saw Houston take the bragging rights. The first of a Friday night Unimas double header, Jair Marrufo is the man in the middle, as Mauro Diaz enters the game fresh off his first goal of the season, while Brad Davis now holds third place in MLS assists for his career. Should be a fun way to start the week.

REAL SALT LAKE 2-1 SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES: The second half of the Unimas double header, RSL enters having beat the Quakes twice in a row, with two draws in the previous meetings. Meanwhile, RSL hasn't scored in over 300 minutes and comes in after getting hammered on the road last week. The Quakes enter after a week off, plenty of time to stew over their loss to NYRB the week before. 0-0 is a smart bet, but my trick elbow feels a few late goals will settle the affair.

PHILADELPHIA UNION 0-1 TORONTO FC: The Union enter having not lost to Toronto since 2012, winning four of the seven meetings since. Toronto, have yet to record a single victory in Philly, having been out scored 3-1 on Union soil all time. In what could be a dire match to watch, I expect Toronto to break their duck and finally get into the winners circle in Philly.

DC UNITED 2-1 COLUMBUS CREW SC: The one match this week I wouldn't miss for the world, the Crew enter having not lost to DC in five matches, winning the last three in a row. DC sits three points above Columbus in the table on the same number of matches played, and have a five match unbeaten streak going this season in the league, while Columbus have won two in a row themselves. The Crew have taken a point in all three all time visits to DC. Baldomero Toledo is the man in the middle. Should be a hell of a match between two of the best in the East.

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION 1-2 NEW YORK RED BULLS: The Revs have won two in a row and are unbeaten in five, and unbeaten in their last twelve home league matches. New York enter on the back of a draw in the midweek at home against Colorado. In what is always a tightly contested affair, this should be a good one.

LA GALAXY 2-0 COLORADO RAPIDS: After a trio of Rapids victories, LA has won the last two meetings between these two conference rivals, with LA thumping Colorado 6-0 in their last meeting. In the absence of their star, LA has found new talent in Bardes clone Bradford Jamieson IV. The Rapids got a quality result on the road midweek, but with a cross country trip and two matches in four days, expect LA to get the job done.

PORTLAND TIMBERS FC 1-1 VANCOUVER WHITECAPS FC: The two Cascadia rivals have seen the home team win their last two meetings, with the road team winning the two previous match ups. Neither team enters on a winning note, both suffering a loss last weekend. Vancouvers two wins in the last four meetings between these two being their only victories in twelve MLS meetings between the rivals, Portland will look to keep the advantage going as Vancouver are without midfield general Matias Laba. This match is second on my list of must watch matches this weekend.

SPORTING KANSAS CITY 1-1 CHICAGO FIRE: The home team has won three of the last four meetings between these two midwestern rivals, in what will be the ESPN2 Sunday match of the week. The Fire have back to back shutouts, while DP David Accam scored his first MLS goal last week, but they haven't won in KC since 2012.

NEW YORK CITY FC 0-2 SEATTLE SOUNDERS FC: The first ever meeting between these two will be FS1's Sunday Night match of the week. New York enters without a win in six matches, while the Sounders come in with two victories on the bounce. This will be the only meeting between these two all season.


INJURY REPORT:

OUT:

Chicago: Magee and Nyarko
Colorado: Sarvas and Burch
DC United: Halsti, Johnson, Birnbaum, and Martin
FC Dallas: Craft and Keel
LA Galaxy: Perk, Keane, Villarreal
Montreal: Porter, Mapp, Crepeau, and Lopez
New England: Barnes
NYCFC: John, Taylore, and Calle
Orlando: Hall, Ribeiro, and Paterson
Philly: Bird
Portland: Zemanski
RSL: Plata and Schuler
San Jose: Sherrod and Lenhart
TFC: Simonin, Caldwell, and Bendick
Vancouver: Lewis and Bustos


QUESTIONABLE:

Chicago: Stephens
Colorado: Moor
Columbus: Trapp, Speas, and Pogatetz
DC United: Hamid
Houston: Garcia
LA Galaxy: Walker and Leonardo
New England: Goncalves, Kobayashi, and Nguyen
NYCFC: Villa, Nemec, and Hernandez
NYRB: Zubar
Orlando: Neal and Cascio
Philly: Aristeguieta, Nogueira, Vitoria, Carroll, Lee
Portland: Valeri, Johnson, Wallace, Nanchoff, and Asprilla
RSL: Jamie, Rimando, Morales, and Okwuonu
San Jose: Stewart
Sporting KC: Myers
TFC: Bloom
Vancouver: Rodriguez



Its been a stellar eight weeks so far in MLS, and week nine looks to keep that momentum going. There are several playoff previews this week, and the time to get stuck in is now. Thank you for reading, and remember, as always, MLS Matters.